There’s a lot of frustration out there from some Matra Holders towards the BOD of Matra. Some of it is justified after all these are the chaps that ultimately
- Production on the way!
must take responsibility the “buck” as the saying goes stops with them. I can understand some of the frustration as I too have felt it. I am after all a share-holder just like you! I don’t as some try to falsely perpetuate buy in then post neither do I make these postings up out of the air they are thoroughly researched to the best of my ability. I have an awful lot of contacts out there in the City and beyond. If you telephoned Matra today and asked them is BMD a regular pain in the arse, constantly contacting & arguing with the company? You’d find that the answer would be “yes!” That could be said for a whole host of companys written about on here.
The fundamental and one consuming reason why I know that eventually the oil will begin to flow and it’s as obvious as the nose on a face. The oil is proven that is to say that the oil is already in place. It is only a question of time before it comes on production. It is a self-evident truth. I think investors especially Privateers can some-what be blinded by the wealth of mis-information currently out there at any given time. Matra are sat on a Minimum of 15.1 million barrels of oil which will almost certainly double to 30Million as 2012 progress’s. And could push past 50 million barrels, the Soko” field has the potential to produce over 6,000 barrels of oil per day.
The Future.
I think stoic Private Investors can reap huge rewards in fortunes through-out 2012 here. The Markets are very forgiving they don’t hold grudges there’s no emotion involved the moment production begins investors will quickly forgive and forget, that’s just the way it is. Where there’s profit to be made the city doesn’t care whats gone before they only focus on what the future could bring. The Matra future could hold out one of the best performances for 2012 for private investors. Hold your stock and wait! Any buys under 1.5p are an absolute bargain. The stock has been kicked to death online. The one fundamental truth that should sustain genuine holders is that the oil is there! Hold your stock and await production they will eventually trade back up and should hit 10/12p on full field developement at the very least! I believe in this company. Yes there’s been false-dawns before the difference now is that the company know that A13 is about to come on production in 2012 as a precursor to A14 WHICH IS THE COMPANY MAKER. They’ll rise on these facts alone. So hold your hats they will spike!
Viva
Dan
Great piece Dan.
I expect we’ll see the usual Bull posted online. The enduring fact is that there’s oil there PH was talking about 60 million plus not so long ago. Just think where the sp will be once they double oip and have production ive atarget of 8p for 2012.
I remember talk of 10p SP over 2 years ago, the company is a joke, anyone should think very very very carefully before investing, only my opinion obviously ..
Tom if they’d gotten production two years ago then the sp would be nearer 25p now. I understand your gripes but the facts remain the same there’s oil there and much more than is being quoted. Of course every investor should research before investing that’s common sense but the case for Matra is compelling. There’s a new PR offensive on the horizon, production will begin in Feb it’s not all bad news. Of course the Global meltdown hasn’t helped re’ finances etc But in the end they will succeed.
Dan
If there are 60 mm b what would a reasonable evaluation be?
That depends on what the financial climate is at the time but you’d certainly be looking at double figures. Conservatively 12p probably nearer 15p. Over time with sustained production and cash-flow they could hit 20/25p. Only my opinion of course. The trick here is to get in at the bottom.
Dan
Hi Dan,
How did you calculate the prospective share price at 20/25p?
Many thanks,
Charles
Calculate the different oip figures 15.1, 30, and 50, million attribute $80 dollars a barrel for the urals blend (which i’ve discounted) for three different OIP figures times each oip figure by 80 dollars. For instance 15,100,000 x80 =1.2 billion dollars give or take the odd 8 million then divide this by 2 billion etc. Do this for each oip figure 30 million barrels comes out at aprox’ 2.4billion dollars, 50 million comes in at about 4 billion dollars divide each figure by shares in issue or shares likely to be in issue ie 2 billion shares after placing etc Take away 80% of the gross figures for oil in place, what you’re left with even at the low case is $300 million dollars in revenue.Divide the $300 million by 2 billion which leaves 15 cents or aprox 12p per share give or take the odd cent and that’s the low case. Or calculate the cash-flow from 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000 5000 and 6000 bopd. A thousand barrels of oil sold at £80 dollars per barrel = $80,000 gross per day 3,000 bopd equates to $240,000 dollars gross per day 6,000 bopd comes to $480,000 per day times each one by 365. the high case comes to 175.2 million dollars per year the low case comes to 29.2 million dollars per year on production alone divide each production cash flow figure by 2 billion then discount the figures by 70%/ or 80% what you’re left with is a range of 20/40 cents per share and remember the oil price is discounted and the calcs are for one years production not 4/5! It’s a bit complicated but the theory is clear enough each share on the “low-case” full production must be worth a minimum of 12p. A sustained production run over 12/24 months will see the sp hit levels unthought of today. Then there’s the imponderables new assets new production, increasing oil price,tax breaks etc etc if they had been producing 3,000 barrels of oil per day for the last 2 years where would the share price be? Remember Delek are not interested in a $50 million dollar company what they are looking at is a $500 million dollar company. So based on the figures alone it’s obvious why Delek are fully supportive. The case is compelling.
Dan
And that’s why Dan your Blog is so successful. I must admit im impressed with your rational thoughts i can see now why you’re sticking with Matra.
4 billion $’s from production makes me quiver like a jelly. I’m buying a million today! & there’s no debt on the company to boot!
Dan,
thanks!! Took the opportunity yesterday to buy some more. Looking forward to the climb upwards.
OK Dan they look as though they’re worth a punt on A13 producing 100+ barrels of oil a day. My question is the funding for A14 WHAT’S YA TAKE ON THIS?
Chivers
There won’t be any problem on funding everyone knows they have to farm-out or hold a placing some where down the line. The fact that the oil is there almost certainly nails any funding. Once they get A13 on production then funding will fall into place at much higher sp levels than present.
Dan
fair enough Dan, good of you to reply, il leave it for new investors now though, over 2 years of disappoinments is enough for me,
Dan any thoughts on BMR?
Hi Dan
Thanks for the update, I am a holder, nursing a 85% loss at the moment.
I get your point but I am concerned with their cash levels, what do they have about 2m after recent placing?
Drilling is expensive so that is what troubles me, otherwise I would buy more.
I would be grateful on your take in regards to it.
Regards
From what I understand once they get A13 producing then funding for A14 will quickly fall into place. It’s a case of proving the asset up via sustained production on A13. thus showing to the market that the asset is capable of a return. Remember that every single company on the AIM raises money Xcite, GKP,Nautical,Solo,Leni,Sound,Wessex etc they all tap up the market at various stages so it’s nothing unique. The question is how high will it go preA13 production,post A13 production and at what level or route will the funding take?
Dan
Thanks for the update Dan, it is appreciated. Any progress / news on your new web site.
Buck Jones
Yes the new site is close to completion, just having a few disagreements with the designers on which merchant services to use etc
Dan
dan update aminex! this is not funny anymore.
Think there maybe worth a punt . Could be a ten bagger from these levels