look forward to the update on MXP Dan much appreciated., I am mystefied here and turning to the bottle lol. I know you mentioned them needing a headline discovery, well DES and Roxi dont,, neither do they need flow rates, yet we find oil 9 times in 6 months and we either Tank or go up 2%, seems a rumour of oil a la Roxi is actually worth more than the actual oil these days. we are doing the business, and the debt wont be a problem at this rate come 2013, fully funded, ramping produciton and weeks away from the game changers. i can hardly think of a better junior oil play over the next 6 months, but seems we have to do everything twice as good as everyone else just to get a rise. DES shot up 25% on no news on the day 50 bllion got wiped off the market, so how can you blame the market for Max being static? so called experts blame flow rates,again roxi jumped over 1005 without flow rates. i have wrote to the AIM governing body to discuss this, as I really cant understand whats going on.
looks like UTS, which some are waiting on will be a monster, doing 12 more drills on this, and must be closer to 135m barrels now, plus a find in the salts means more could come from this well, dont forget the big one one on the shallows is ASK, and this must be nearer 70% chance of success now, I dont get it, you recommend MTA and it can fly, yet MXP never moves.
in the proflic caspian basin, near the supergiants, i think we will be bought out by chevron.
hoping your update does something to the share price mate, we know whenever you even whisper MTA it jumps 15%
maybe your update with wake people up what the potential here, one that merchant securities said, they can scarsely think of a better junior oil play -even without the jackpot deeps.
but as usual im expecting a good update to make up drop 5%
Been doin some research into MTA – Been trying to sort water problems in the well from 2008- to present , all just to get 1200 bopd
Mxp already doing 2800bopd increasing to 3500 bopd soon.
What I find incredible is that just “one” of our many shallow discoveries has got flow rates thus far – it was releases a few months ago and said to be 650-1200 on own – same as MTA – now imagine once we get the flow rates from all the other shallows, it will stitch together a sizeable revenue stream without the deeps! We are worry 75p based on the shallows alone IMO , we ain’t a one trick pony, and without the deeps we are solid . Yet mxp seems so unloved and MTA is a favourite , we seem to have to do everything twice as good as these other non producers who fly on hype alone, and to my amazement we are doing it better than most ! Maybe it’s the bad history under kapelle when I know lots of hedge funds got burned when mxp dropped from 200p to 89p almost overnight ! Incredible to think we were 200p before we had any of the oil we had today .
In a recent post I suggested that the final share number is likely to be around 1.4 billion, which sounded like a worryingly high amount to me. So I did what I normally do and tried to work out what it actually means to us as share holders.
The short version of which is that under-developed assets (resources) were valued at about $8 and producing assets (reserves) at about $22.
With 1.4 billion shares in issue and the current exchange rate of $1.57:£1, 1 million barrels of resources could be valued at $8 * (1,000,000 / 1,400,000,000) / 1.57 or 0.36 pence per share.
1 million barrels of reserves could be valued at $22 * (1,000,000 / 1,400,000,000) / 1.57 or 1.0 pence per share.
We currently have somewhere in the region of 8.6 million barrels of reserves and 62.4 million barrels of resources. Based on the above, this would be valued at about 31 pence.
If all of those barrels made it into reserves, they would be valued at about 71 pence between them. This is with Uytas at 110 million barrels in place and a 20% recovery rate. The last four drill successes suggest this is a very conservative figure for the amount of oil (time will tell whether that recovery rate is conservative or hopeful).
Striking Emba-B, with the 137 million barrels of condensate (as estimated by MS report and ignoring the gas) would initially be valued at 50 pence per share in terms of resources and eventually at £1.37 if it made it into reserves.
ASK-Triassic similarly valued would be 18 pence as resources and 50 pence as reserves.
All of which left me much less concerned at the higher than expected eventual share number.
Though it left me no less confused as to the continuing low share price
max was loved by the cit and the big hedge funds in 2005, and touted to be a major within a decade, such was the potential on the area, this still remains, despite the extra shares to weather the 2007 storm BUT, many of the city boys got burned when we fell from 200p to 80p almost overnight, and they do not have short memories, this explains why we can hit oil 9 times in 6 months and not really move, yet DES has almost doubled from 11p despite STILL effectively being in Admin not having a drop of oil, and Roxi can jump 100% in ONE day without the much needed flow rates, even though they only start drilling in 2012 – its a joke As hard as it is, watching these DOG of shares fly, and these with no wear near the potential, oil, flow rates, cash revenue, drilling program, as Max petroleum, we must be patient, and remember the old buffett adage, be greedy when others are fearful, and eventually the market always shows the true value. DES is worth about 5-9p in reality, yet I have no doubt it can swing 15% upwards on any given day without NEWS, or a RNS or FLOW rates, in the SAME negative market, you know this is true, and this also proves your excuses are also tripe and infact we he do not know what is going to happen here
MAX WERE 200P IN 2008 BEFORE WE HAD ANY OIL. WE HAVE NOW FOUND OIL 9 TIMES IN LAST 6 MONTHS, DOES ANY OIL COMPANY IN THE WORLD HAVE A BETTER STRIKE RATE OVER THIS PERIOD
WE NOW HAVE MORE SHARES IN ISSUE, BUT THE DEBT WONT EVEN BE AN ISSUE ONCE YOU STITCH TOGETHER THE REVENUE FROM THE SHALLOWS ALONE, LET ALONE A STRIKE ON THE JACKPOT DEEPS IN A FEW WEEKS.
BACK THEN WHEN WE FELL FROM 200P TO 89P ALMOST OVERNIGHT, THE BROKERS MAINTAINED THE BUY RATING WITH A TARGET OF 360P, WITH THE BEST I SAW BEING 420P, WE ARE WHERE WE ARE, WE CAME THROUGH THE CRISES, NOT UNSCATHED, BUT THAT SAME POTENTIAL ON THE AREA REMAINS, 35M AND 3 YEARS SPENT ON THE 3D DATA, HOW CAN WE NOT BE CONFIDENT GOING INTO THE DEEPS, A STONES THROW FROM SEVERAL SUPER GIANTS IN A UNDER EXPLOERED AREA, WE KNOW WHERE THE OIL IS AND DESPITE THE SHARE PRICE WE ARE DOING THE BUSINESS, WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME WE ADDED 20% IN A DAY? DESPITE HITTING OIL ON ALMOST EVERY WELL IN 2011. FULLY FUNDED, DEBT SORTED TILL 2013, RAMPING PRODUCTION, LIMITED DOWNSIDE HERE AT 15P, AND THIS HAS MULTI BAGGER WRITTEN ALL OVER IT LIKE GKP AND XEL BEFORE IT, WHEN WILL THE MARKET WAKE UP TO THE POTENTIAL?
OR DO WE STILL NEED ROXI, DES, SOLO TYPE FLOW RATES?
IS IT STILL THE NEGATIVE MARKET, THE SAME ONE DES HAS NEARLY DOUBLED IN , IN THE SAME TIME WE HAVE STRUCK OIL MANY TIMES, AND THEY ARE STILL IN ADMIN
WE DID RELEASE FLOW RATES FROM JUST ONE OF THE MANY SHALLOWS A FEW MONTHS AGO, UPTO 1200BOPD ON THIS ONE ALONE, WITHOUT THE OTHER 8 OR THE DEEPS – IS MTA TAKING 4 YEARS TO SORT A WELL DOING 1200BOPD?
WHICH EVER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT, THERE IS NO ARGUMENT HERE, HIGHLIGHT ANY BAD POINTS IN MAX AND I CAN SHOW YOU A SHARE MULTI BAGGING WITH THESE SAME PROBLEMS AND HALF THE POTENTIAL WE HAVE
RANT OVER SO UPSET HERE
MXP is a giant in the making and deserves a new thread of its own. I have been in MXP since March, buying in at 120 and adding at 110, 83 and 95. My target for the end of 2006 is 150p and for the end of 2007 300p.
MXP has the most outstanding prospects in Kazakstan, with several multi-billion barrel targets as well as many other smaller plays ranging from 20 million barrels upwards.
Max Petroleum Issues Upbeat Interim Report On Its Production and Cash Flow From Shallow Wells In Kazakhstan
Unlike a lot of interim results which have a historic feel to them, the report from Max Petroleum for the six months that ended on September 30 2006 and which came out just before Christmas effectively gave an update on the group’s activities.
Max came to London’s AIM in October 2005 saying it was focusing on the Pre Caspian Basin in Kazakhstan, one of the richest hydrocarbon basins in the world. The area is home to the majors with pockets deep enough to develop the region’s numerous super giant sub salt flats such as the 9 billion barrel Tengiz oilfield and the 13 billion barrel Kashagan offshore oilfield.
Max has got its eyes on some complex large deep structures with possibly up to 1 billion barrels of oil in place, on parts of its four huge concessions. But first it said it would try and pick the low lying fruit by drilling a number of wells on the shallow supra salt oil and gas fields of Blocks E and A, in order to achieve early production and cash flow.
When we reported on Max in October, the company – having raised US$75 million through a convertible bond offering – announced that it had successfully drilled the ZMA-2X well with production beginning on September 20. The ZMA-2X was the second of five that Max planned to drill on the Zhana Makat A structure in its E block. The well was drilled down dip from the ZMA-1X discovery well in order to further delineate the filed.
We now learn from the interim report, following the completion of the five wells the group was producing 900 barrels of oil per day and was marketing the crude locally for US$27 a barrel. Now this is some way off the 2,700 barrels a day chairman Jim Jeffs thought was possible by the end of 2006, but the results are encouraging none the less. But by the end of September Max was nearing completion of a sixth well on the structure. There is also a further three months of possible new wells to build into the equation. The company anticipates it will being selling its crude oil into the export market in early 2007, which is expected significantly to increase the group’s price received per barrels.
All in all, Jim Jeffs statement that the amount of work accomplished by Max since it floated is quite remarkable is not hyperbole. It is not just a question of sinking wells anywhere. In October 2005 the company had just four employees. It has a large team of technical experts with relevant operating expertise, and assembled the technical da
look forward to the update on MXP Dan much appreciated., I am mystefied here and turning to the bottle lol. I know you mentioned them needing a headline discovery, well DES and Roxi dont,, neither do they need flow rates, yet we find oil 9 times in 6 months and we either Tank or go up 2%, seems a rumour of oil a la Roxi is actually worth more than the actual oil these days. we are doing the business, and the debt wont be a problem at this rate come 2013, fully funded, ramping produciton and weeks away from the game changers. i can hardly think of a better junior oil play over the next 6 months, but seems we have to do everything twice as good as everyone else just to get a rise. DES shot up 25% on no news on the day 50 bllion got wiped off the market, so how can you blame the market for Max being static? so called experts blame flow rates,again roxi jumped over 1005 without flow rates. i have wrote to the AIM governing body to discuss this, as I really cant understand whats going on.
looks like UTS, which some are waiting on will be a monster, doing 12 more drills on this, and must be closer to 135m barrels now, plus a find in the salts means more could come from this well, dont forget the big one one on the shallows is ASK, and this must be nearer 70% chance of success now, I dont get it, you recommend MTA and it can fly, yet MXP never moves.
in the proflic caspian basin, near the supergiants, i think we will be bought out by chevron.
hoping your update does something to the share price mate, we know whenever you even whisper MTA it jumps 15%
maybe your update with wake people up what the potential here, one that merchant securities said, they can scarsely think of a better junior oil play -even without the jackpot deeps.
but as usual im expecting a good update to make up drop 5%
Been doin some research into MTA – Been trying to sort water problems in the well from 2008- to present , all just to get 1200 bopd
Mxp already doing 2800bopd increasing to 3500 bopd soon.
What I find incredible is that just “one” of our many shallow discoveries has got flow rates thus far – it was releases a few months ago and said to be 650-1200 on own – same as MTA – now imagine once we get the flow rates from all the other shallows, it will stitch together a sizeable revenue stream without the deeps! We are worry 75p based on the shallows alone IMO , we ain’t a one trick pony, and without the deeps we are solid . Yet mxp seems so unloved and MTA is a favourite , we seem to have to do everything twice as good as these other non producers who fly on hype alone, and to my amazement we are doing it better than most ! Maybe it’s the bad history under kapelle when I know lots of hedge funds got burned when mxp dropped from 200p to 89p almost overnight ! Incredible to think we were 200p before we had any of the oil we had today .
In a recent post I suggested that the final share number is likely to be around 1.4 billion, which sounded like a worryingly high amount to me. So I did what I normally do and tried to work out what it actually means to us as share holders.
A recoverable barrel of oil in the ground is valued at different rates by different people. I outlined the valuations of Merchant Securities and Maq’s here:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MXP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=8760206
The short version of which is that under-developed assets (resources) were valued at about $8 and producing assets (reserves) at about $22.
With 1.4 billion shares in issue and the current exchange rate of $1.57:£1, 1 million barrels of resources could be valued at $8 * (1,000,000 / 1,400,000,000) / 1.57 or 0.36 pence per share.
1 million barrels of reserves could be valued at $22 * (1,000,000 / 1,400,000,000) / 1.57 or 1.0 pence per share.
We currently have somewhere in the region of 8.6 million barrels of reserves and 62.4 million barrels of resources. Based on the above, this would be valued at about 31 pence.
If all of those barrels made it into reserves, they would be valued at about 71 pence between them. This is with Uytas at 110 million barrels in place and a 20% recovery rate. The last four drill successes suggest this is a very conservative figure for the amount of oil (time will tell whether that recovery rate is conservative or hopeful).
Striking Emba-B, with the 137 million barrels of condensate (as estimated by MS report and ignoring the gas) would initially be valued at 50 pence per share in terms of resources and eventually at £1.37 if it made it into reserves.
ASK-Triassic similarly valued would be 18 pence as resources and 50 pence as reserves.
All of which left me much less concerned at the higher than expected eventual share number.
Though it left me no less confused as to the continuing low share price
Hi Dan
Do you know anything about GEMS? the company that invested in Max today?
also will we get the update today?
max was loved by the cit and the big hedge funds in 2005, and touted to be a major within a decade, such was the potential on the area, this still remains, despite the extra shares to weather the 2007 storm BUT, many of the city boys got burned when we fell from 200p to 80p almost overnight, and they do not have short memories, this explains why we can hit oil 9 times in 6 months and not really move, yet DES has almost doubled from 11p despite STILL effectively being in Admin not having a drop of oil, and Roxi can jump 100% in ONE day without the much needed flow rates, even though they only start drilling in 2012 – its a joke As hard as it is, watching these DOG of shares fly, and these with no wear near the potential, oil, flow rates, cash revenue, drilling program, as Max petroleum, we must be patient, and remember the old buffett adage, be greedy when others are fearful, and eventually the market always shows the true value. DES is worth about 5-9p in reality, yet I have no doubt it can swing 15% upwards on any given day without NEWS, or a RNS or FLOW rates, in the SAME negative market, you know this is true, and this also proves your excuses are also tripe and infact we he do not know what is going to happen here
MAX WERE 200P IN 2008 BEFORE WE HAD ANY OIL. WE HAVE NOW FOUND OIL 9 TIMES IN LAST 6 MONTHS, DOES ANY OIL COMPANY IN THE WORLD HAVE A BETTER STRIKE RATE OVER THIS PERIOD
WE NOW HAVE MORE SHARES IN ISSUE, BUT THE DEBT WONT EVEN BE AN ISSUE ONCE YOU STITCH TOGETHER THE REVENUE FROM THE SHALLOWS ALONE, LET ALONE A STRIKE ON THE JACKPOT DEEPS IN A FEW WEEKS.
BACK THEN WHEN WE FELL FROM 200P TO 89P ALMOST OVERNIGHT, THE BROKERS MAINTAINED THE BUY RATING WITH A TARGET OF 360P, WITH THE BEST I SAW BEING 420P, WE ARE WHERE WE ARE, WE CAME THROUGH THE CRISES, NOT UNSCATHED, BUT THAT SAME POTENTIAL ON THE AREA REMAINS, 35M AND 3 YEARS SPENT ON THE 3D DATA, HOW CAN WE NOT BE CONFIDENT GOING INTO THE DEEPS, A STONES THROW FROM SEVERAL SUPER GIANTS IN A UNDER EXPLOERED AREA, WE KNOW WHERE THE OIL IS AND DESPITE THE SHARE PRICE WE ARE DOING THE BUSINESS, WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME WE ADDED 20% IN A DAY? DESPITE HITTING OIL ON ALMOST EVERY WELL IN 2011. FULLY FUNDED, DEBT SORTED TILL 2013, RAMPING PRODUCTION, LIMITED DOWNSIDE HERE AT 15P, AND THIS HAS MULTI BAGGER WRITTEN ALL OVER IT LIKE GKP AND XEL BEFORE IT, WHEN WILL THE MARKET WAKE UP TO THE POTENTIAL?
OR DO WE STILL NEED ROXI, DES, SOLO TYPE FLOW RATES?
IS IT STILL THE NEGATIVE MARKET, THE SAME ONE DES HAS NEARLY DOUBLED IN , IN THE SAME TIME WE HAVE STRUCK OIL MANY TIMES, AND THEY ARE STILL IN ADMIN
WE DID RELEASE FLOW RATES FROM JUST ONE OF THE MANY SHALLOWS A FEW MONTHS AGO, UPTO 1200BOPD ON THIS ONE ALONE, WITHOUT THE OTHER 8 OR THE DEEPS – IS MTA TAKING 4 YEARS TO SORT A WELL DOING 1200BOPD?
WHICH EVER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT, THERE IS NO ARGUMENT HERE, HIGHLIGHT ANY BAD POINTS IN MAX AND I CAN SHOW YOU A SHARE MULTI BAGGING WITH THESE SAME PROBLEMS AND HALF THE POTENTIAL WE HAVE
RANT OVER SO UPSET HERE
MXP is a giant in the making and deserves a new thread of its own. I have been in MXP since March, buying in at 120 and adding at 110, 83 and 95. My target for the end of 2006 is 150p and for the end of 2007 300p.
MXP has the most outstanding prospects in Kazakstan, with several multi-billion barrel targets as well as many other smaller plays ranging from 20 million barrels upwards.
Max Petroleum Issues Upbeat Interim Report On Its Production and Cash Flow From Shallow Wells In Kazakhstan
Unlike a lot of interim results which have a historic feel to them, the report from Max Petroleum for the six months that ended on September 30 2006 and which came out just before Christmas effectively gave an update on the group’s activities.
Max came to London’s AIM in October 2005 saying it was focusing on the Pre Caspian Basin in Kazakhstan, one of the richest hydrocarbon basins in the world. The area is home to the majors with pockets deep enough to develop the region’s numerous super giant sub salt flats such as the 9 billion barrel Tengiz oilfield and the 13 billion barrel Kashagan offshore oilfield.
Max has got its eyes on some complex large deep structures with possibly up to 1 billion barrels of oil in place, on parts of its four huge concessions. But first it said it would try and pick the low lying fruit by drilling a number of wells on the shallow supra salt oil and gas fields of Blocks E and A, in order to achieve early production and cash flow.
When we reported on Max in October, the company – having raised US$75 million through a convertible bond offering – announced that it had successfully drilled the ZMA-2X well with production beginning on September 20. The ZMA-2X was the second of five that Max planned to drill on the Zhana Makat A structure in its E block. The well was drilled down dip from the ZMA-1X discovery well in order to further delineate the filed.
We now learn from the interim report, following the completion of the five wells the group was producing 900 barrels of oil per day and was marketing the crude locally for US$27 a barrel. Now this is some way off the 2,700 barrels a day chairman Jim Jeffs thought was possible by the end of 2006, but the results are encouraging none the less. But by the end of September Max was nearing completion of a sixth well on the structure. There is also a further three months of possible new wells to build into the equation. The company anticipates it will being selling its crude oil into the export market in early 2007, which is expected significantly to increase the group’s price received per barrels.
All in all, Jim Jeffs statement that the amount of work accomplished by Max since it floated is quite remarkable is not hyperbole. It is not just a question of sinking wells anywhere. In October 2005 the company had just four employees. It has a large team of technical experts with relevant operating expertise, and assembled the technical da
January 2011 – 20p
RNS – oil
RNS -oil
RNS – oil
RNS -oil
RNS – oil
RNS – oil
RNS – oil
RNS – oil
August 2011 – 10p