Read your cards correctly! Don't fumble!
Can any one believe that this stock actually went down to 103p? Just what caused the drop? Manipulation of fear is rife among Private Investors. The manipulation comes in many different guises. Whether it be some jockey on a chat forum or a rumour deliberately spread by the Market the result’s always the same. An sp that is driven down among Private Investors while the professionals hold and Hoover up the stock. I personally know of two brokerages that had been buying stock sub 130p. A colleague of mine doubled his holding at 121p bringing down the average and risk, he’ll be happy today. The recent rises are yet again making the market professionals millions after successfully mounting a buying campaign to get stock! The core Net Asset Value here is over 300p with a further 100/150p on top of the nav when production kicks in. If you research the notes released over the last year ALL are indicating STRONG-BUYS. Some can be construed to get the target price over 500p depending on how rosy a picture they paint. Production is a given so common-sense amongst Brokerages dictates that Xcite are a strong buy. Ergo they bought! It’s a tough decision to call when one is faced with a falling value of a stock. However that’s how the market works buy on weakness sell on strength and de-risk whenever possible. Get your strategy in place and stick to known facts. The known fact here is that Bentley will be on production.
Viva!
Dan
Good to see that XEL is on the move. Now all I need is for CNR and EML to come through with some Jim Mellon magic and I’ll be a happy bunny
This is the one stock I own and have done since 23p.
Now, I’m not in exploration so don’t know the techniques and the in’s and outs of it. And my guess is neither do you (?)…However, of course, you have your ear to the ground and your contacts. The people I know (traders mainly – with decades of experience in oil, but not specific exploration experience/knowledge) are saying that this is not ‘de-risked’ that there is still big questions marks over extraction of the heavy oil?
Again this is where the poverty of my own knowledge plays itself out. Wasn’t the flow test a demonstration that XEL could recover the heavy oil? Was that proof (conclusive or otherwise) that it was possible?
These are genuine questions, as at 300+p I thought the stock was fairly safe (apart from pre-funding for FSP and onward – as with all AIM shares) but was happy to take buy up any more offered i.e. avoid (to an extent) dilution….
Anyway if you have a view – or anyone you know with a knowledgeable view – on the questions raised in para 3, would be interesting.
Cheers for the update dan. My average is about 2.70 and I’ve been pulling my hair out over the drop in sp but I’ve held on strong! I feel this share has been attacked by a hedge fund that has now changed it’s position. I also believe XEL will be back to £3 levels by Xmas. Fundamentals are brilliant and risk is incredibly low at these prices. Wish I had spare cash to top up some more.
Any updates on SLE BMD ?
Thank the lord I had the fortune to sell my stock after the RNS came out. Everyone was ramping this to 600p+ by end of the year what a joke, goes to show theres no such thing as a safe bet on AIM, and dont listen to rampers/derampers, but DYOR
Good write up Dan, I was surprised to see XEL slip so much and I’ve been loading up from £2 downwards so its great to see the light at the end of the tunnel!
Do you have any news/views on Beowulf Mining (BEM)? Been a bit of a bloodletting lately, but sitting pretty on some enormous assets in Sweden – hopefully things will pick up!
Thanks for the blog and all the best
Midass
I see mxp struck oil again , and went down . What’s going on dan ?
How many times do they have to strike oil?