Mickey Mouse owes Avesco $60 million
I’ve been trailing this company now since December 2010 and had scheduled the post for the launch of the new BMD site however it’s become increasingly apparent that certain big hitters have been stake-building so much so that I’m now forced to divulge the play that has been slowly building with some of the big noises in the city of London. Apology to Simon Cawkwell, aka Evil Knievel I know of his interest here!
Here’s a terrific potential 100%/175% gain that could have investors frothing at the mouth come late June,July.
The Avesco Group are an international provider of services to the corporate presentation, entertainment and broadcast markets, the company Blurb states;
Avesco Group plc is the parent company of a market leading international media services group. They provide specialist audio-visual equipment and services to live events, broadcast and entertainment industries. Their full service companies provide complete technical support for conferences, sports, music, corporate events and television programmes. To complement these, they offer broadcast services supplying broadcast equipment, systems, services and television studio facilities. The businesses growth has been both organic and through acquisition, increasing the number and location of base operations and further extending their ability to provide world-class service with real international reach.
Avesco through Celador, owner of Who Wants to be a Millionaire, recently won a court case against Disney in the California courts (July2010). On the sale of the business, Avesco retained its right to receive the benefit of the litigation case with Disney whereby it has been alleged that the show format was not promoted suitably. Judgement was given against Disney to the tune of $269.4 million dollars. Avesco’s share of the award is $60 million dollars which comes to approx’ 159p per share. Now take in the fact that Avesco have recently announced a return to profit in 2010 with sales of £117 million with a trading profit of £1.3 million and look set to steadily remain on course through-out 2011. The companys’ tangible net asset value is approx,150p per share; based on that fact alone Avesco are under-value by 30p! So here’s the crux of the matter Disney have appealed the Judgement even though they were beaten hands down in 2010. The appeal comes up for hearing at the end of next month(June) the downside is that if Disney win the appeal then Avesco will in turn appeal it, so we could be in for a long wait.The upside is that should the court dismiss Disneys’ appeal (REMEMBER THEY’VE ALREADY LOST ONCE) then Avesco will return to shareholders a special dividend of yes you’ve guessed it 150p! So just what are the chances of Avesco holding on to the Judgement? They are much better than any oil explorer world-wide. “To succeed on appeal, Disney will have to show that the trial judge erred, possibly in instructing the jurors. Appellate courts generally are reluctant to overturn jury verdicts,” said Michael Kump, a partner with Kinsella Weitzman Iser Kump & Aldisert in Santa Monica, California, whose practice has litigated numerous cases against Disney.
Could hit 200p,250p in the next six weeks!
Viva!
Daniel
PS 8.33am…..Hot off the press. Just had an email from one of our contacts Apparently Simon Cawkell reckons Avesco are the one of the Big Ideas of the month and one of the most under-valued stocks on the market!! There ya go. You get all the best bits on the worlds favourite Blog!!!
Hi Daniel,
I have followed your posts since the blogs inception and whilst I cannot buy all of your recommendations I have plotted them, I believe those who followed you judiciously will have done extremely well, a superb site and long may it continue.
You may remember I asked about Empyrean Energy and you said you were awaiting information, are you now in a position to post a comment or have you decided to leave it. I know many are waiting for your views.
Kind regards
Stewart
..it’d been bumbling along all month under a quid, when the email hit, she was already up 10%. funny how things all come at once.
certainly an interesting punt, not so great if things get tied up in court for years, but at this discount to NAV I think the downside is fairly limited.
currently 15% up for the day.
P.S – an update on the 12 month challenge might be of some comfort to your followers on SLE, they are hurting a bit lately.
Hi Dan, thanks for lead on AVS. Do you have any idea why SLE is being squeezed so much on such low volumes when it has such exciting prospects and news must now be imminent? Would I be right in saying that you would have sold your position by now as part of your money management/stop loss strategy? Great site, by the way. Best regards Steve
If Dan’s come out of SLE I would be amazed. He published the buy transactions on his website as part of the million pound challenge. To say that he sold awhile ago while maintaining this status would be, even by his standards, a act of bad faith.
I say bad faith given that we now have learnt that he sold EO at 135p despite telling investors (at this price) that he sought a 1m lloy facility to buy in.
I’m aware of the counter-argument that people should have got out and taken gains. But this does not negate two propositions. The first is that he said ‘hold’. The second is that he gave, alongside otherss, NAV’s which now seem optimistic. Are we to treat his NAV’s with caution. Answer: Yes.
BMD gave a very good or (lucky call with Sefton) he also gave a very bad one (or unlucky) with Roxi.
There’s a lot of image-management on this site.
No you are completely wrong. I am still in sle. And all my sales of Nautical,encore,Premier and GKP etc etc were posted on. The basis of your gripe is that EO are now down. How many times does it need to be said when sat on 200%/300% gains people should DERISK. It isn’t rocket science. EO have hived off their exploration assets into another company. The rump of successful assets has been kept by Encore. This in its self takes away value from Encore common sense! The recent Cladhan drill has also effected the sp. It is your money not mine and you should take responsibility; holding a 200/300% gain and failing to realise the massive profit you were sat on. Invest for the right reasons and stop trying to blame others when stock retraces. You had over 12months of huge sp spikes yet never derisked.
All my sales have been published please check the posts.
Good Luck.
Dan
Dan, why do you even respond to these fools.
Just trying to help them to get their act together I suppose.
Dan
Dan, dissapointed by Encore like many others, got in late which has hurt but I make the decisions with my money, not you. Can you just clear this up though, last post I get on Encore when I click on your favoured co.s list is 28th Jan 2011, hold for 300p. What date did you post that you had made a sale? What was the basis for the 300p (assume you expected drill results to be better?) and did you still hold any ‘derisked’ shares into the current fall? I can understand some of the negativity – it’s not fun losing money, but I think a detailed post on this might clear up some of the negative sentiment…Thanks
If that’s true then I apologise. I hadn’t seen (nor can I actually find) the sell posts on EO. All I have seen is the hold recommendations at 135p etc.
Not in EO. As I said before not blaming you for my investments. My issue is more academic – apart from some recent work in delayed arbitrage, EMH (in its weak form) still maintains theoretical rigour. So either your gains are from inside info/luck/or from taking significantly more risk…(2/3 being inter-dependent).
James, I whole heartedly agree with you. I feel bmd’s recent success is nothing more than the consequence of a pavlovian reactions to his initial good fortune with the north sea oil stocks… Over time, this will fade..the stocks that have plummeted are endless… Eo. Xel lloy mta. Sle. Rxp.
No your totally wrong on your assertion/analysis re’ efficent market hypothesis.. Your assertion builds in several moot points one being that EMH actually can be quantified.the other that the market has already priced in information in the public domain which doesn’t take into account company information or access to private analysis. The biggest pointer to your arguement is the third word in EMH AND AS YOU KNOW OR SHOULD KNOW IT’S A hypothesis! EMH has many,many critics!
Dan
And what is the downside if they lose the case?
Hi James Dan posted quite a few articles on selling up different shares. On encore he did post that he’d sold out under the pressure and he wished everyone else well and good luck. Same as GKP npe,xel,circle,haike i think what happened is that he got slatted for disclosing the sales, the sps began to tumble. Since then he’s never posted any buys or sells of his stocks, I remember a post on npe,eo,gkp rkh xel sayin that the companys had gone as far as they could at the present time and Dan wouldn’t be posting on them unless there was some dramatic news he wanted to concentrate on Eastern european oil plays.
Hope that helps mate.
Dan what about this Avescom will they really dispense a special divi if the court chucks out Disneys appeal?
Pickle
I cant seem to find anything in Avesco’s documentation that suggests they will pay proceeds from the court case out as a special dividend but maybe I am just being blind.
Ofcourse it will add value to the business but considering they are only just recently producing a profit would they not want it to bolster their balance sheet and pay down some their debt position which looks to be around 16m?
Any thoughts appreciated.
Mike