Bargain Basement prices!
As promised, it’s a wee bit late, (I am in a different time-zone at the moment!) here’s an update as to what I have garnered re’ the recent rumours and rumblings currently doing the rounds.
I can’t understand the investor panic that seems to of set in. I have made various enquiries re’ the rumours being penned online as to a disappointing CPR and a proposed placing/dilution.
Lets deal with the CPR there is NO truth whatsoever as to the rumours currently being bandied about as I understand it the CPR is expected to quantify the recoverable resources to well over 200, mmbls and as XEL keep stating this figure does not include advanced recovery techniques which will further add to the upside. The problem investors have here seems to me to be of their own making “the devil makes work for idle hands”. There are no Institutions selling their stock. I can find no evidence of any Major holder being anything other than happy with their holding. That in a nutshell should tell you thus. The institutions as I understand it see at least 100% upside from where the XEL sp is AS OF NOW! Some are looking at a possible 900p on sustained production.
As for a rights issue the company have always maintained that somewhere along the line there would be one. They have been quite open about this. The feeling is that there will be an institutional offering. Private Investors shouldn’t concern themselves about what price the offering comes in at as it is immaterial to their investment.Once fully funded the sp will fly. XEL will double from where they currently sit regardless. Most in the city are invested for production and no one in the city is selling their stake regardless of what private investors post or think. The professionals are all over this stock awaiting production or a further piece of the pie from a placing.
They are sat on hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in the North Sea, the oil IS there, the infrastructure is there, the institutions are there, BP are there, the Bentley alliance is there and shortly the Rowan Norway will be there!
It is nailed on that production will double this sp! Ignore the siren calls and JUST hold your stock production is pencilled in for Q4.
They should be trading in excess of 400p. I wouldn’t concern myself if I was a holder of this stock I would just go along for the ride they will probably hit 500/600p as they near Q4. An absolute bargain at these prices! Hold or sell the choice is yours.
Viva!
Dan
Well said.
excellent Dan hopefully thats put the breaks on the fall.
Hi dan
OEX. What is happening. Help
I Have basically distanced myself from lse and iii for the last 5/6weeks as it ticks me off, this explains the drop. Im all in here now because its a good place to be, in your opinion Dan when do you feel the sun will come out on these again time wise? Thanks for the blog Lee
At last a sensible comment, I took the oportunity to yop up at these prices, which I had more funds to do so again, while nothing is certian in life (except death and taxes) I do look forward to Xcite paying for my house in The South Of France come full service production!
eagerly awaiting xel cpr……oilex having a dreadful day, sigh…
Thanks for that, it may stop some panicking!
Any news on RXP, I got in at 11p and I am getting a bit concerned.
Central Rand Gold – up 60% today, was always going to fly, even if was deramped on here, sorry to those that missed out.
thanks again, nevee had any doubts this wouldnt come good. ive steered clear of bulletin boards. an eagerly awaiting xel cpr……oilex having a dreadful day, sigh…
What is your views on EO?
Everything seems in place for them to start rising again, but todays dip is very unexpected. I was expecting it to hold at £1.20-£1.25.
The Rigs should now be in place and I would have expected a spud by now.
What do you think is going on?
Is there any other reason to the drop other than profit takers?
If you see here:
Voyage Related Info (Last Received)
Destination: CLADHAN
ETA: 2011-02-17 14:00
Info Received: 2011-02-15 08:08 (7d, 8h 0min 8s ago)
This is the log for the Tug pulling the rig to Cladhan……its 5days overdue.
and seemingly the weather has been ok.
Dan, have you given any thought to a possible change in outlook for NTOG since you last commented on its approaching demise?
Hi Dan, Yes, EO. has taken a bit of a knock lately. Any update on it? tia
Thanks Dan for your reassurance it looks like the tin hats have been dusted off by the market participants as they jump into the save haven foxholes to see how the political situation pans out in the middle east however the price weakness in Encore should be a distant memory when they have two drills turning in the north sea
What investor panic? Perhaps not looking a BBs and checking the SP every opertunity may have something to do with my lack of concern. Trade on fundemantals not rumour. Turn your computer off and go for a run, play with your kids, enjoy yourself, read a book; life’s to short. If you have too, do some more research into your investment, but not via BB’s. Everything will be fine come Q4 as Dan has said. Don’t be a victim of the 24hr news / BB society. It’s very easy for some unscrupulous people to give you a “nudge” so you feel you have to sell. Good Luck….
Excellent post.
Dan
I’m guessing that with how things are at the moment we shouldn’t be too surprised to see the share slowly dropping in price until the CPR comes out, at which point it should rocket back up. Certainly looks astounding value at the moment.
So the answer to “what has happened to XEL” is nothing – but what is going on at Matra? That’s the big question now I think 🙂
Encore rumour in Times – Premier Oil TO at 220p within 2 months – strong buy.
When are you returning to Blighty Dan?
Or are youn ever returning? Don’t travel to Libya!!!
Smoke
Back tomorrow (Thursday) Land at 6.30am Heathrow.
Dan
Dan I would appreciate you taking a few mins to respond to my email.
Thanks
Any news on MATRA? Is it still a buy? Your view will be highly appreciated.
DAN
looking forward to your falklands blog. You mentioned to another poster a week ago.
I understand your position on some like desire.
But at this level RKH is a strong buy £200m cash 170m oil discovery and upgrade soon with apprasial to 242m. I understand location etc but £2.35 come on £3.50 conservative.
I feel its like cladhan all over again.
looking forward to the falklands blog
Thanks as always………..
Morning Dan,
Welcome back to blighty…
Good post RE XCITE, slightly off topic and I know its one you will have been getting asked quite allot lately, but….. What are your thoughts on the news we are waiting on from MTA. Watching the SP drift down when we know news should be with us is causing some confusion. I appreciate the global markets are having a bit of a battering at the mo RE Libya, but still find it hard to understand why MTA are being hit so hard….
Anyway, your thoughts on this topic are very much appreciated and we all know you don’t have a crystal ball for RNS activity, and we must understand your finely tuned ear on this company is where the value of your posts lye.