Panic is for Lemmings
Well there’s been some terrible ill founded nonsense written about this company over the last few days. And the panic that has set in looks well and truly unmasked as a shorter/deramper plot to gain stock here.
If any one really thinks that a busted export hose is the end of XEL then they need their head examined. Todays latest company epistle is the clearest pointer of this company’s intentions re’ the Bentley drill. You have been told more times than I care to recall that XEL are going into production! Just like you were all told that BMR was being over-cooked and would rise after the unfounded scandalous nonsense cleared.
Here is a snippet from the sector watcher from yesterday
Xcite Energy
More delays for XEL’s critical testing of the Bentley heavy oilfield in the North Sea, which is likely to contribute further to the nervousness creeping into the share price, off another 2% yesterday, making a 23% fall in the past eleven days. The test was originally meant to be completed by end-November, with the latest delay due to an operational issue with an export hose, and an alternative testing procedure now likely to be implemented. Bentley is effectively the only asset the group has, and explains the reason the share price peaked a couple of weeks ago at 332p (a nine-fold increase on its 2010 low), giving it a market cap of almost $800m. However if the heavy viscous crude fails to flow, and the field is deemed uncommercial, the downside is likely to be severe. Alternatively a strong result could support the argument for the P10 reserves case of 235 million barrels, which could be worth 600p/share.
What has happened to XEL over the last few days has been nothing more than an attack by Market insiders driving down the sp to below broker targets in-order for them to take up positions in the company at significantly lower values IE; An enhanced position bought at lower levels. Some of you have been manipulated by the market out of winning positions and will now have to buy back in at higher prices. The export hose news was almost certainly leaked to the market with its enivitable filtering down through the food chain to the retail punters who ran for cover.
Flow testing began in early December, the crew arrived in early December, the ISO tanks were being prepped in early December, the Betty Knutsen was steaming toward the platform in early December.The on-site iso tanks were being filled in early December. The weather took a turn for the worst then the export hose failed. Nothing more nothing less! A mere minor tech’ problem! If you’re in profit and your nerves are shot then sell it’s simple really.
It is increasingly apparent that short-term day traders trade this stock; day trading is not investing! They have made a packet from your panic!
Stop look and listen before you cross the road here! STOP believing ill-informed bb chat. LOOK at the 600p target on production. LISTEN to what the company are telling you.
Good luck!
Hola
Dan
Great stuff Dan!!!
Hi Dan,
Two excellent blogs today, Ive been following your posts now for 6 months and have investments in GKP, Xcite, Matra, and of course Encore. I like shares as a hobbie but being a paramedic, research is tough due to being away from the computer a lot of the time so your posts are perfect for an average PI like myself. Im now seeing more gains than ever. (and Ive been a PI for 5 years with very little success) So I just want to thank you/the team for involving us in breaking city news.
Keep it up please!!!!
Oilfan
PS Im an ex-marine and I know the girls in the office of Help the Heroes, so again a very big thanks to choosing them as your charity of choice
I’d like to second that.
Top posts on Berkeley as well. They closed up a massive 28%.
Your online detractors silence speaks volumes yet again you the man Dan!
Hear Hear
Respect to you Sir. Your career choice speaks volumes to me.
If it was within my power I’d treble the salary of every worker in the National Health Service! The paramedics and fire-brigade pulled me out of a very nasty accident some time back. To say they saved my life would be going a bit too far but they certainly saved my foot!
God Bless
Daniel
Dan
I’d also like to offer my thanks…i’ve been investing for about 9 months, and following Dan’s advice for the last 3 of them – in which time my returns have almost trebled. I read the LSE boards too and there are some very cynical people on there with regards to Dan (?) – but you can’t argue with cold hard facts: Of the shares i’ve bought directly as a result of this blog, the buy-in prices added together total £310.02. Current price of the same shares? £443.87. And most of them have only just begun to move. Also ditched DES at a very slight profit just before the crash, again on Dan’s advice.
Maybe a touch of jealousy from those LSE cynics? 😉
Eternally grateful. If only i’d been reading for 9 months and not 3…! 😀
Hey man a big thanks for the info on bmr. I knew what you were sayin was right even after i checked and rechecked and rechecked until i was sick of bmr news and fundamentals. I still never sunk any cash into them even when they were near 4pence i should of bought then. Got them at 5.12p and am over the bloody moon this is the first trade ive made thats actually gone up the same day. Just a small punt for me and im showing a nice 1200 pound profit so sold out keeping the profit as stock for the long haul.
Once again man
Thanks.
Stu
this is the xel thread stu.
Well done on the BMR punt good move taking out your originals and leaving the profit to ride. should double once we get the kabwe deaal
Xcite up again Dan great call on BMR.
cONGRATS
Dan , they’re going for it this weekend into the ISO’s , wonder if their request for dispensation will be approved to call flow from this test in time or mkt may not hear result. Also pondering how they have replaced batteries on the timers for downhole tools (completion) that were due to run out tomm eve…..but hey ho they are going for it so grateful of small mercy’s.
On another topic whats this about EO. shooting further seismics on arrival? They have spud location already so bodes well I hope, thoughts???
I’m trying to look for information re’ support vessels. I do know that all replacment parts have to be certified before use. A source of mine reckons that depending on the part size they can chopper it in and certify it on the rig???
Any thoughts Stevie?
Dan
PS Not heard anything on seismics for EO.
Hi Dan,
First of all thanks for all your posts.
I am a newbie. I started investing in XEL and BMR only a few months ago.
I guess it has been a true baptism of fire…. I’ve tried to filter out all the noise from the discussion boards and concentrate in the fundamentals (not always easy… especially last night on BMR)… and YES I did hold on to my shares…
P.S. I found your blog after someone was slagging you off on the XEL iii board… thank god for that…. You have given me some needed perspective in desperate times…
Adios!!
I!m telling you allagain my freinds.!:). Just buy it at any price HOLD it for @ months then SEll it for 647p in February 2011.im in @ 104 106 115 157 204 276 290 311 and sold the lot at 328 xxx cos im the one i shorted bought back allstock a 230 and 258 o i dont kniw man im in at @around 104 some 204 all went up if it dips buy if it goes up sell GOOD LUCK just BUY and HOLd simplicity and smothering xmas kissesxxx o9ver eo xelnpe thankyou thankyuo oooo yes! thankyou my little fxxxxucczxking beauties LONG LIVE BLUEBEARD log live XEL eeeeeeOEO. theoneamnd onli the onewho knows waiting foe something amazing……:)xxxel20112011 MAKE IT happen stay lucky and get the loot.xcx
83p (Nov07), market cap £63m when it was floated
258p, market cap £400m now
Value up almost x7 from float price just 3 years ago (note there has been dilution so compare market value to market value not price)
Bentley oil field has been known about since the 1970s so cannot see why value has gone up 7 times since 2007. The oil price is not up anywhere near that much.
What will it cost to develop Bentley? It does not seem like they have the funds – they have been raising funds with their equity paper via SEDA. It is one thing getting commercial flow rates but they will need many wells to get an adequate daily production to justify the venture. They don’t have the money to pay for these wells from what I can see.
So are they planning to do a major placing to raise the funds or a farmout? None of these are good for shareholders they will mean more shares in issues and/or a lower share of production revenues.
Why would any major pay £400m to buy a heavy oil field? There are so many better opportunities out there.Encore is safe bet.
Thanx.
Hi Dan,
Have you looked at Amur Minerals. I posted on your blog a few days ago before it spiked 100%. Was wondering what your thoughts were on it
Hi Dan,
Just come across your site and have read some of the aged stuff with interest. You have been on the money an awful lot of the time. I look forward to trading with your information in mind and assure you of contributions out of profits.
Merry Christmas.
R
oh hi Dan i following your blog quite a long time i have some few quid to invest for long term do you give me any suggestion thanks in advanced
Invest in footsie 100 and balance your portfolio across a broad range of stock.
Dan
Interesting Dan. With European Debt worries and a possible interest hike coming to dampen inflation, is it not a bit of a ‘perfect storm’ for a price collapse on ftse100?
Well that depends on how you see the European economy. European debt worries should be viewed in a Global context.
There’s no doubt that we are in for a bumpy ride. However there’s some safety to be had in the footsie 100 particulary if the stock you hold is targeted in companies/sectors that should be able to weather the storm. Healthy balance sheets coupled with low to zero debt equate to low risk. Good company fundamentals are the key here and some do pay the divi’.
I’d stay well away from retail,property,pharm’s and funds and stick to oil ,mining (Gold) and Banks that are NOT in-debted to governments. That may be difficult on the banking side but there are some!
The old addage is “spread your risk”
Dan
I appreciate your thoughts and explanations, Dan. I understand what you are saying. Thank you.
Hi dan
Thanks for all your balanced advice. As a newbie what is your take on the Mxp news today? I am in this in a small way but the
More I read the rns the less clear it becomes
Hey Dan the muppets on Ft Alhphaville are slagging off XEL again today calling it an exploration drill even though it’s a pre production drill. They are also calling the financing a death spiral. Are they allowed to say things like that without backing it up with facts ?
The FT is a great site bit sniffy when it comes to retail punters but generally it’s a good tool for sourcing info.
They can say what they they want it’s merely opinion and every ones entitled to one.
Wait for the good news then go back and give them the old “I told you so”
Good Luck
Dan
Who designed the page picture!!!! Cannot read a thing.
which pic?
Dan
Hi dan. Hope you are ok. This wallpaper with money houses, very difficult to read againest. Also, xcite still not under your favourites. Any news on VOG? Merry christmas to you and family when it comes. Keep up the gd work.
Asif The dollar houses are the border. The back ground is black. You should be seeing the Blog with a small dollar house border and the writing is white on a black background. Fully legibile.
Let me know what you are actually seeing.
Thanks
Dan
Hi Dan. Many apologies. I can see it now on my own laptop, but could not see the black from my work computer. Any thoughts on VOG please. I feel like a parrot and I apologize. Thanks