Rockhopper Exploration. News

I’ve been absolutely inundated over the last seven days for information and market analysis re’ RKH.

Spoken to many over the last few days regarding this companies drill (Ernest).

Sorry to report that the whisper here is that they had encountered problems Friday/Saturday/Sunday just gone.

Spoke to them yesterday at 2pm. Got the usual company line.

Investors need to be on the ball here as it is beginning to look likely that news will come this week via an RNS. Nerves are fraying i can report that stop losses have increased on this particular stock it could be that investors are jittery given the 30 day time frame for the drill.

Get your stop losses activated here as a precautionary measure if the sp keeps falling then it is nailed on that Ernest is likely to disappoint.

Good Luck.

Daniel

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  1. fpinvestor says:

    That doesn’t seem like the best advise based on what happened last time with stop losses!? especially considering the value without Ernest …

    • Brokerman says:

      I think you’ll find that an investor who doesnt cover his/her position on investments by locking in profit can and usually does get burnt eventually. The whole idea of investing is to have a stratagem that covers your investments whether that involves a stop loss, trading algorithm or just averaging down; a basic market rule is secure your investment .
      You need to also remember that what you as a private investor think your companys’ stock is worth is usually wide of the mark and subjective. The market is objective any bad news and it will off-load stock and move on to the next potential gain.

      Daniel

      • fpinvestor says:

        Usually, and with the next potential gain being so close to this potential loss I don’t see the downside being that high or lasting that long. With the potential risk then being that much lower my point is that although locking in profit is very important, this scenario doesn’t necessarily fit that model. Your explanation does go someway to agree with this though with “… or just averaging down”, no?

  2. Bob says:

    “Get your stop losses here activated”. Really? Where were you on black wednesday? LMAO

    • Brokerman says:

      Black wednesday Bob was as you point out a tragedy for the stop loss. However stop losses are a very useful tool and need to be utilised by PI’s.
      Look at central china goldfields they hit 7.5p yesterday they are now on the slide. A stop loss locks in profit; if your stop loss fails to activate then get a trading platform that is reliable.

      Daniel

  3. a mottishaw says:

    Any news or advise on optare
    Daniel

    • Brokerman says:

      Boardroom problems are causing concern here. The last notes i read confirmed that disagreement over the best way forward for Optare was rife among the BOD.

      Daniel

  4. a mottishaw says:

    Much appreciated fantastic blog

  5. Hi Dan – what do you make of the recent spike MM activity…

    Think this could do a FOGL?

  6. asilad says:

    The way stop losses were criminally taken out on this share last month I also think your advice on stop losses this time round is way off mark. Especially seeing as even if Ernest is a duster, there is very likely to be a strong rebound with the high chance of success on a good flow test for sealion.

    • Brokerman says:

      Well you’ve just ruined the whole ethos of your comment.
      If you lock in profit via a stop loss then when it is triggered your investment stake plus profit is returned to you! Thus you are able to re-enter the same stock buying back your original holding at a lower price while increasing your cash balance.
      Like all investors i understand your mind-set however subjective opinion will always come off second best to market objectivity. Don’t get my comments wrong i personally think that the whole RKH adventure has been and will continue to be a success. Fantastic gains have been made and more than likely there’s more to come. But lock in profit!

      Good Luck
      Dan

      • asilad says:

        Sorry Dan but that really is not the case in this particular circumstance is it? Many extremely lowly set stop losses (ridiculously low!) were taken out in the RKH plunge and this was immediately followed by a surge in the share price to prices way above those of the stop losses.

        There is no way people that a lot of people would have had the chance to get in at a lower price than their already triggered stop losses due to criminal market manipulation.

        You know this – why are you not stating it in black and white. You have seen how market makers can manipulate so why are you so vehemently defending stop losses on AIM stocks? What is your agenda here?

        • Brokerman says:

          The problem you point out is specifically related to PI stop losses. The market makers are not responsible for setting each individual investors stop loss. Each investor much set their stop loss at a margin that truely reflects their individual investment locking in their gain. There’s no point setting a stop loss WITH A HUGE LOSS!
          If the mm’s target a share for a shake out they do so on the back of potential bad news. If you think that there was “criminal activity” then report it! I am not defending stop losses i am merely stating that the use of the stop loss system along with other methods is a tried and tested tool that should be used to the benefit of the PI. (Please read the post).
          As for an agenda? This blog is run for the benefit of Private investors. The answer to your accusations of criminal activity re’ the mm’s is as you stated “RIDICULOUSLY LOW”. Learn your lesson: get your stop losses set at the correct margins vis-a-vis your holding on volatile stocks.
          Good Luck

          Daniel

  7. gav fielding says:

    With the stop losses I guess you are trading using spreads? agree protect gains by whatever means. This could mean stop loss (closing an existing long position) or setting up a new short position if a price theshold is breached? ie a limit order. I guess ‘stop loss’ can mean different things depending on how you trade. I held the physical shares and averaged down some time ago. I do wonder with RKH if the institutions are behind negative rumourflow, de-ramping the price? Problems doth not a duster make but you do have an annoying habit of being right Dan!

  8. neil says:

    if stop losses worked in the sense that one can be 99% confident that ones share would be sold at onese stop loss price, then I would agree with you.

    However , the reality is that stop losses don’t trigger a trade immediately. The share price behaviour of rockhopper a couple of months ago proved . Stop losses set for 230p kicked in way under 200p due to the surge in sells. My sentiment is that people investing in speculative shares like oil exploration are gamblers. stop losses are for not for gamblers. If one has stop loss in an oil exploration company they should ask themselves what they are doing investing in the company in the first place.

  9. Toryblue says:

    I’ve been following rockhop for the last several months. all rigs have problems dan! I totally agree with your post except for the stop loss bit. Let them rip! And reap the rewards heaven is ours. come on rockyhoppy hit the oil again!

    Blue to my bone.

  10. Pulse says:

    Hi Daniel, given the fact these shares are badly sought after stop losses would be a potential disaster waiting to happen. This could potentially allow manipulation leaving many investors out of pocket. I think the general opinion is that even if Ernest is an issue or duster that this share will rebound relatively quickly to a similar value due to the sea lion flow test looking at £5 minimum. Stop losses if triggered could send the SP falling when there is no real need for panic. I think it’s important to remember the key facts that sea lion could be worth £5 without the significant upside factored in also. Selling now is only for the T20 mob and any semi long termer would see more value in staying put. 45 days approx for flow test with a spike upwards for spud followed by a rise on expectation. I think we can safely say if all goes well with flow test at £6-7 depending on results. The BOD must be confident given their RNS and press statements. All is good get rid of stops to avoid further disappointment if Ernest doesn’t come right, as long as you’re not t20. All my opinion though but a fairly educated guess here.

    • Brokerman says:

      Yes it’s a good point you raise. And as you put it RKH have an awful lot going for them. The city tend to view stocks dispassionately where as PI’s are more emotionally involved. I take your view that if Ernest is a disappointment RKH still have much more to exploit not least sealion.
      I can’t see 600p/700p being hit unless there’s a significant divergence from what the current market expectations are re’ sealion. I could be wrong and hope i am. 500p on sea lion after flow test is in easy reach if they hit oil on Ernest then it’s going to go ballistic. However always cover your plays.

      Good Luck.

      Daniel

  11. Barnstonpickle says:

    Well its official ernie is a Duster!
    Well done Dan called it right once again.

    Great blog and always a pleasure to read.

    Pickle

  12. apur32 says:

    Good hint a day before about Ernest as dry. Fantastic blog – Good information. Keep it up……….

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