Whisper doing the rounds here that GKP are involved in ongoing discussions with Institutional holders. A placing is the most likely scenario given the recent SP decline.
Investors need to hold their nerve and remember how far GKP have come over the last 9 months. Oil price is down, USA employment figures are up and we are still scraping along the bottom of a Global recession not forgetting that the elections in iraq are proving difficult to organize.
Daniel.
Dan, bearing in mind the sales of Kurdistan oil companies over the last year at prices that, if applied to GKP, would result in SPs between £30 and £200.
Are GKP now of a size that would make them too big in terms of assets to be taken over, thus makin a merger with a major or a farming out of Shaikan more likely or do you still believe a T/O will happen?
Randalf
Comment by Jay053 on January 22, 2010 8:45 am
DAN,, what are the thoughts on the floors? ,,
All major markets closed down,, most of my portfolio this morning is red,, (I dont hold any banks)
Seemingly caused my Obama’s banking reform plans, Are the markets going to suffer more,
Could this snow ball into something bigger!!
Im thinking of selling up about 80% of my portfolio,,then buying back in after everything has settled,, which I wouldnt usually dream of,, or maybe I could ride it out!!
how many others are thinking of selling up,, and how many of those thinking are actually doing!!??
Just some thoughts ive been having in the last day!!
Maybe im over reacting!!
JAY
Comment by Jay053 on January 22, 2010 8:58 am
Ok maybe I over reacted!! ,, the blue is coming back!!
Comment by theshipscook on January 22, 2010 9:10 am
GKP up as I type. The storm will pass in my opinion. If you can take some short positions on the Dow as a hedge. Of course, that carries its own risks.
Ok maybe I didnt over react!!
Should have stuck with what I thought!! Only sold up 40% of my portfolio at that time,,, sold another 40% yesterday!!
Market correction under way!
”USA employment figures are up” I thought the latest figures are comming out today and they arent going to be as high as expected!!
FTSE is going to go under the 5,000,, dow under the 10,000!!!
Spain and portugal news will intensify, grease will have riots,, Elections in the UK will drag the market down! How many more countrys will this pull out of the woodwork??
QE ended,, US monetary policy ending
There hasnt been a decent correction since the crash last march, this is well due, and it aint guna be small, if this is the big one!!
Anniversary of last years crash!!
Just my own thoughts,, im not suggesting you should sell, I could be totally wrong!! All markets could rally this afternoon!! but i doubt it!!
JAY
give it a rest dan close this blog down , lost credability and randalph you talk **** , please explain how if applied to gkp would equal an sp of £30-£300
chopper89x,
first
the fact that you haven’t spelt my name correctly suggests that you either haven’t properly read my comment or you haven’t understood exactly what I have written. Can I suggest that you actually take the time to do so before you resort to name calling.
next
If this blog so offends you why post on it??
dan will, i’m sure, close it at some time as he loses interest or people stop posting it. Your posting here shows you us as nothing more than a walking oxymoron.
thirdly, despite your profanity I will explain exactly what I posted in such a way as you can understand.
A number of Kurdistan oil explorers have been bought over the last 18 months in deals that value them at figures between $4 and $7.3 per barrel of oil.
If you choose the most recent, the take over of Addax by Sinopec they were valued at a price of $5/barrel of oil
Into this figure you need to estimate just how much oil GKP have. I chose 20bn barrels. Obviously this is at the top end of how much oil could be in Shaikan, but conversely I’m also assuming that a) GKP don’t obtain any further blocks and b) that the other three blocks are all dusters.
If you apply the oil total to the price paid by Sinopec you get a GKP market cap of $100bn or £62.5bn using an exchange rate of 1.6. With 485m shares in issue this works out at just shy of £130/share.
And the Sinepec deal was at the lower end of the scale of deals struck.
Now if you reread my post i wasn’t saying that this was a fair valuation or even a likely valuation, simply that if the figures for other T/Os were applied then there are very few companies/countries that could afford to take over GKP.
I actually think that if the GKP SP were ever to exceed £10 then a T/O is extremely unlikely just from an affordability viewpoint and I was asking Dans opinion of this train of thought.
But judging from your posting it appears the intricacies of what I actually posted flew over your head.
Randalf
Randalf i would tend to agree with most of your calculations but for the fact that GKP are not drilling in a stable region of the world expect a takeover of this stock at roughly 1/2 dollars a barrel. My opinion based on feed back from some contacts. I maybe wrong time will tell.
Good Luck and keep up your informative posts. Much appreciated here. (Ignore the nutters that occasionally post drivel)
Daniel
It’s going to be an interesting few months, although I do keep wondering what BP would pay to treble their oil reserves.
FYI they currently have 10.3bn barrels of proven reserves. I wouldn’t like to bet against GKP ending up with at least twice that much in reserves if they were able to complete drilling on all four blocks.
As posted on ii tonight, Cairns SP went up by £10 based upon a 4bn barrel discovery with 30% recoverable. I’d like to know what that increase was in terms of market cap.
In any case I think the fact that the Bod have such a large holding bodes well for us PIs, because the interests of the board and of the PIs should coincide nicely.
This blog is here for subscribers and readers if you don’t like whats being posted then don’t log on to the blog.
It’s as simple as that.
It is a forum where the chaps can come and post news,views and opinion. It is not here for chumps like yourself to try and score meaningless brownie points to massage your rather over inflated ego. Name calling genuine posters is a rather sad reflection on your character.
In other words PISS OFF back to London South East you moron.
Daniel has spoken!
Dan
First of all we are all entitled to express an opinion here, however much you dissagree with it and secondly I think your last comment rather discredited yourself and your blog.
GKP heading into the 60’s next week, I sugggest you start topping up!!
Diamond bob ALL views are tolerated on here however obnoxious comments abusing other posters are not welcome on here as for discredited i think you’ll find your 60p prediction, (like so many of your comments on this blog) is about as likely as you winning personality of the year.
Look forward to your post this time next week. Humble pie comes to mind. A large slice for you next Friday.
Daniel
Hi Dan
what kind of timescales would we be looking at for any placement
Dan – presumably GKP will still be looking long term for a TO but I guess that won’t happen until the political standoff between KRG and Iraqi govt. is resolved. Is that how you see this playing out?
There do seem to be some signs that KRG and Iraqis are coming closer to a deal though I expect we may need to wait until after the Iraqi elections for real movement.
Have a good weekend.
Stig
Yes things do seem to be stabilising however the region is still volatile as evidenced by the recent falling out over former Baathist candidates being barred from standing in the forth-coming election. Until we get confirmation of an agreement between Kurdistan and Baghdad GKP will continue to bounce around with retraces followed by rallies it’s a market cycle common to AIM stock when there is no news Private Investors get jumpy. None of the major players have sold or are they likely to sell, Professional investors are driven by fundamentals and market research based on House analysis. The PI’s are usually in the dark and are driven by sentiment and fear hence why the majority of them will not be around when GKP rocket.
Daniel
Dan
Just sorted out the log-in procedure and had to change from steve to stevebuffet, sounds more financially minded..lol.
Keep up the posts regarding GKP as they are very much appreciated. Hope you topped up as I did at 80
regards steve