Members Only Post. Not for General Release
It is looking very, very good over at Nostra Terra Oil & Gas (LON: NTOG). We all know that the AIM market and in general the markets world-wide are still suffering there’s not a day that goes by without some bad news story undermining confidence. So it’s against this back-drop that Members/Fellow UK Investors should carefully research their investments. Remember it’s become a market of fear.
As everyone knows Lofgran and McCall have been very and I mean very tight-lipped concerning production and assets. At first we thought it was because they were being cautious due to the past history of the company before the new CEO came in but this time yours truly has come up with the goods. I can not emphasise how good this could be over the next 6/12/18 months. Nostra could be a 10 bagger. They could get to 5p, they could get to 10p, but in reality 2/3p would seem about right.
We’ve managed to locate their drills on the Chisholm Trail which was difficult bearing in mind that they are not known as Chisholm Trail in the US and that there’ was a small oil company that had a Chisholm Trail drill in the area! Unconnected to Nostra. These were the first clues that got me sniffing about, why give out “Blag”names for wells in the US to the UK? The reticence and subterfuge used is to protect the integrity of Nostra and Wards position within the acreage. There’s an oil rush on at the location. I managed to track and trace Nostras’ “CT” drills through a company called “Gastar” an NYSE-listed company they’ve been very helpful by posting online information that helped us locate the Ward/Nostra drills.
They operate next door to Ward/Nostra “CT” wells and have so far spent $85 million dollars buying up acreage and asset/prospects. These prospects/assets all encircle Ward/Nostras acreage in the Kingfisher and Garfield counties Oklahoma.
Gastar believe that based upon their due diligence and data that the best areas for drilling into the plays and formations are all around and through the Ward/Nostra acreage. Some of the recent drills have, like the Nostra/Ward drills, excelled returning close to a 1000 boepd over a 10 day cycle. This is why Nostras’ responses to questions, emails, phone calls and general queries has been met with pursed lips. They’re involved in an undisclosed Mid-Continent Oil Play. An Oil Rush. How they’ve managed to work their way into it is a mystery. Could be that their Geoman, McCall has pulled in some favours. They are sat on prime oil real estate and have and are still adding to it.
We can expect more “CT” drills this year. Intents to drill notices from Ward have already been lodged. Ward do not hang around. “This is a tremendous opportunity to secure a much larger position in what we believe has the potential to be a highly prolific new oil play,” says Gastar. (Who released news this month. Which means that it is now in the public domain. Ergo, Nostra will have to confirm this via RNS.) Who have just spent $85 million dollars. $33 million dollars of this was for producing acreage of 177 bopd which should put into context the real value of Nostras thought to be 80+ boepd which is almost certainly going to double if not triple this year. Big gains to be had here.
A back of the fag packet calculation reveals thus Gastar 28 Mar – sp = $1.76 (last day trading before announcing acquisition) 10 April – sp = 2.76 (10 calendar days later)
= 57% gain. Previous market cap = $120m. New market cap = $189m Gain = $68.5m
And NTOG has aprox 1/3 of that in size? so this comes in at = ~ $23m US or ~15m GBP
I’ve put some of the Gastar production results below. Remember this is the exact same area and formation that Nostra & Ward are drilling.
It is as close to a racing certainty as you’ll ever get in the oil game that Nostra production is going to double/treble. Current Nostra Production is valued by Gastar at a minimum of $10 million dollars probably much more. We could have a situation whereby Gastar buy out Nostras’ Kingfisher/Garfield counties interest partnering Ward. We just don’t know how this could go. The only point that is certain is that Nostras value is going to rise once the market and Investors catch on. Yes it will take time to catch fire, but it will.
GASTAR PRODUCTION
Actual results from a recent well in the play:
Initial Production Rate (IPR) = 255 BOE/D
Most Recent 10 Day Average = 968 BOE/D
Most Recent 30 Day Average = 738 BOE/D
Crude Oil Percentage = 87%
Other wells they have in the area:
66 BOEPD (most recent 10 day average)
968 BOEPD (most recent 10 day average)
342 BOEPD (IP or Peak Rate)
645 BOEPD (IP or Peak Rate)
Nostra haven’t published their reserves but as I understand it they’re on their way. (After a minimum of 6 months production history a reservoir engineer can begin figures. These will be real, proven figures (PDP and PDS), not the outlandish guff that we are all sick of reading on AIM.
I’ve put to one side Nostras other working/producing assets as well as their closing in on the $1.7 million dollar Richfield note. I’ll update on them in a month or so when we get the Members Independent Note. What’s important here is that Nostra are debt free with an increasing bopd, as well as becoming cash rich they are involved in an as yet undisclosed mini oil boom in Oklahoma! The news is now leaking out. You could assign £15 million to the value of Nostras “CT” drills but in reality they could be worth much more. Why? Nostra are known to be STILL buying up acreage and almost certain there’s more “CT” drills on the way this year. Come on Nostra release an RNS on this.
Get researching them.
Dan
PS I hope no ones trading/investing with out first cross checking the research. You can easily start to check this by clicking HERE. Presentation: http://files.shareholder.com/
