Aurelian Oil & Gas. Two penneth!

Aureus of Aurelian minted in Mediolanum. Obv: ...

My two penneth!

Take a good look at Aurelian Oil & Gas. The company was founded in December 2002, and is focused on the re-emerging Central and Eastern European oil and gas markets. (The oldest producing oil province in the world).

Current projects span the region from Poland to Bulgaria, with production in Romania, a deep appraisal well drilled on a large structure in Poland in March 2007 to be developed with a further horizontal well to be drilled in 2010, together with exciting exploration prospects including projects in four countries, Romania (4 blocks), Slovakia (3 blocks), Bulgaria (2 blocks) and Poland (14 blocks). Aurelian operate all of these projects with the exception of  Bulgaria.

The share-price tanked on Friday the 16th last week on news that Aurelian’s’ stabilised flow testing on Trzek-3 MFHW  hadn’t gone as planned the gas recovery from the Trzek-3 appraisal well was lower than anticipated and could be between 4bcf-8bcf rather than the 16bcf-20bcf that the Company was expecting. The well is also producing higher levels of water than expected. On August 9th Arbuthnot Securities came out with a target price of 84p. Sam Wahab issued an upbeat note after the firm updated the market on its operations in Poland – on the Bieszczady and Siekierki fields. “With the recent uncertainty in the market, we feel Aurelian’s current price represents a strong buying opportunity and continue coverage with a “buy” recommendation and an 84p target,” he said. At the time of Arbuthnot’s note Aurelian were trading at 40.25p. (current price: 17.25 pence).

So whats changed here? Yes the Trzek3 is disappointing but that’s not the end of Trzek3 or the company! Far from it.  Aurelian are currently re-assessing Trzek3 and more importantly they are still FLOW-TESTING. It’s my understanding that the water influx could have effected, and most probably has, gas flow. Aurelian are not a one trick pony. They have assets right across Central Europe and the company are very well-funded with a Board of Directors that are well thought of within their respective areas. They have traded over 90p in the last 12 months. The current share-price looks and feels as though it’s about to bounce back over the coming weeks.

Put them on your watchlist as a recovery play. If they manage to sort out the water at Trzek3 then they’ll rocket back. Indeed any kind of half-decent production at Trzek will almost certainly enhance their recovery. 40/50p Looks fair value. If they bring Trzek3 back on track then Arbuthnot’s 84p looks cheap!

Viva!

Dan

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  1. Barno99 says:

    I totally agree the problems with the well will be sortd out and its very good of the company to keep everyone updated even with bad news. Shows there integrity. The drop is totally overdone and I am buying as we speak.

  2. Rnsr80 says:

    Hi Dan,

    I appreciate I am posting in the wrong area but Nostra have released positive news this morning also making mention of other interests/assets and yet the SP is depressed this morning. Any idea why?

  3. Joseph says:

    I keep hearing about matra getting a nice vat return soon and other informed investors on lse are getting positive emails back , rekon a fix is on the cards . A few v big buys lately too . All could be good

  4. SpikeyDT says:

    Nice contribution but it is worth noting that certain members of iii are actually pumping this one and it is these posters who are staring at losses after buying in at around the 35/40p mark a long while back. These certain posters do not take much working out but they are seemingly respected. Again, much like your enemy, Hub, these posters are iii’s favourites namely one who was allowed to have multiple ID’s on iii. Pan paniscus by name and Pan paniscus by nature.

    • Brokerman says:

      Stay away from uncontrolled blather Spikey. Hub isn’t my “enemy” He’s been castigated on here by me due to the disgusting comments he has tried to post. A complete online whacko who will have his identity unmasked shortly.

      Dan

  5. Dan says:

    Hi dan, mxp found oil ….again . 9th time in last 6 months , and in that time we have dropped from 20p to 10p lows. Getting boring now, almost every drill is oil .
    Yet DES have nearly doubled from 11p lows and are effectively in admin.
    Best part about today is the find of the deep salt , bodes well for the jackpot deeps . How long can the Market ignore this? Seems a rumour about oil , is actually worth more to the share price than actually finding oil these days. Incredible . We need DES and roxi style flow rates eh? Roxi Rose over 100% and even you were unsure on the speculation – yet they only start drilling in 2012 so it was very easy to see it was trash .

  6. andrew says:

    Any idea on Gulf Keystone news it looks good to me ?

  7. DAN says:

    mxp found oil for 9th time in last 6months Dan

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